Stakeholder dialogue and environment

Stability of customer demand predictions

On average, 72% of the predicted development of customer demand was equal to previous predictions. We therefore achieved our target of 70%. There was a decline in the stability score in the course of 2022, due to much higher forecasts for sustainable generation, electrification at heavy gas users and the heat transition. This was caused by the war in Ukraine and increased government ambitions. The turbulent developments in relation to the energy transition will strongly affect the stability of the customer demand prediction in 2023. In 2023, we will add new themes to our calculations, such as batteries/storage and electrification of smaller commercial gas users. These are also themes that we expect to be highly volatile.

Good and stable forecasts of demand for connections and grid capacity (for both energy consumption and energy feed-in) are essential in order to calculate the impact on our grid and identify bottlenecks at an early stage so that we can plan the investments that are needed. This allows us to develop timely solutions and engage with customers on timing, location, capacity and flexibility. We observe that customer demand is complex and erratic, and depends very much on developments that are outside Stedin’s control.

We discuss our results grouped by the following three topics: built environment, mobility and industry.

Built environment

Improving the sustainability of the built environment is complicated. It not only presents technical challenges, but also requires significant social change. We are actively involved in the Regional Energy Strategies and the Heat Transition Visions. We are also working hard to develop and implement innovations, including heating homes with sustainable gases, such as hydrogen. 

Regional Energy Strategies (RES)

The RES define where and how electricity can best be generated sustainably on land (wind and solar power). Stedin is an active participant in the consultations in the 14 RES regions in our service area, contributing knowledge of the structure of the grid and using opportunity maps to show where the present grid can further facilitate additional energy generation. The objective is to make optimum use of the existing grid and to enable planning and preparation for grid expansions. We carried out grid impact assessments for all the RES regions. Through these assessments, we establish for the proposed scenario how much room, time and investment is needed to achieve the grid expansions. We are also developing a strong (administrative) relationship that will help accelerate the implementation of grid expansion now and in the future.

Growth in energy generation continued to be strong in 2022

The amount of sustainably generated electricity continued to grow in 2022. Most growth (34%) was in solar panels on the roofs of houses and small businesses in the Stedin area (up to 15 kWp). Businesses and producers of sustainable energy also made substantial investments. The sharp increase in energy prices has made self-generation financially attractive. In the Stedin area, the target has been increased by 6% compared with 2021 to 12 TWh in sustainably generated electricity from solar energy (from 15 kWp per installation). Over 37% of this has now been achieved. There is over 14% work in progress, and around half (just over 48%) is still a target and still has to be developed. That is an enormous challenge.

Demand for space and public support are key considerations that often lead regions to opt for a large share of solar generation, particularly from rooftop solar panels, and relatively little wind generation. As a consequence, there is no good balance. Solar and wind are in a way complementary. With a good balance, use of the energy infrastructure is more or less constant throughout the day. Broadly speaking, solar during the day (and more in summer than in winter), and wind in the mornings, evenings and nights. If there is a focus on solar, this means that grid use will be heavy during the sunny hours of the day and much less at other times. Sizeable investments in the grid will be needed to cope with this burden, which could possibly have been avoided had a better balance been chosen. Read more about this in the ‘Investments in our grids’ section.

Growth of the energy transition in the built environment

The growth of the energy transition is continuing in the built environment as well. This is shown by the following figures:

• The number of gas removals for improving the sustainability of existing buildings rose by 51.3% in 2022 to 24,960 compared with 2021 (2021: 16,496). This is the total number of households that were made gas-free up to the end of 2022. 8,464 households were made gas-free in 2022.

• The number of connections for reinforcing the electricity connection as a result of sustainability improvements at households was 31,556 in 2022 (2021: 19,268).

• Stedin connected 22,804 new-build homes in 2022 (2021: 21.454). This is an increase of 6%. 89% of these new-build homes are gas-free.

The pace of the heating transition is not meeting the targets

Municipalities produced a first version of their Heat Transition Vision at the end of 2021. In this vision, they set out how they intend to make the switch to sustainable and gas-free heating and cooking in their municipality. Together with the other grid managers, Stedin has analysed 312 Heat Transition Visions. This analysis shows that around 70% of the municipalities have not yet adequately shown how they will make their housing stock gas-free. For instance, some of them have not yet stated in which districts they intend to begin. Consequently, the Heat Transition Visions do not give sufficient guidance for Stedin to be able to anticipate.

Stedin and the other grid managers have urged the municipalities to prioritise their development of specific district planning. We are also calling on the government to give direction on the heating transition. We hope this will avoid a situation where the work builds up to the point that it becomes infeasible. The Heat Transition Visions are based on the climate target to achieve a 49% reduction in CO₂ emissions by 2030 and to make 1.5 million homes in the Netherlands sustainable. In theory, this means that going forward,187,500 homes will have to be made gas-free each year.

Support to municipalities and housing associations

Our area directors and account managers actively support municipalities and housing associations in planning the energy transition. ‘Standards and Rules of Thumb’ is an information package that explains the necessary works, space requirements and lead times for the various transition options. The development of rooftop solar generation and electric transport obviously also have an impact on the electricity grid. The information package includes these developments, enabling municipalities and housing associations to plan for the future with as comprehensive a picture as possible. With the Quick Grid Impact Scan, we give a general assessment of whether plans can go ahead straight away, or whether we first need to carry out other works. We give an indication of the expected lead time and the space required for distribution stations. At the same time, the plans give us increasingly better insight into how the heat transition is developing.

Hydrogen

We are studying possibilities for converting electricity into hydrogen or heat to structurally reduce the need for grid capacity and make it possible to reuse our gas grids. The activities Stedin undertakes with hydrogen are in line with the recommendations from Netbeheer Nederland’s Integrated Infrastructure Survey 2030-2050 (Integrale Infrastructuurverkenning 2030-2050). This infrastructure survey comprehensively examines the energy system and covers every single energy carrier.

The gas grid is also important for the heating of existing homes, as well as our electricity grid. Several analyses, including the Opening Bid from Stedin and the Initial Analysis by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), show that in some neighbourhoods, heating with a sustainable gas is the cheapest alternative to natural gas. Use of sustainable gases such as green gas and hydrogen will enable optimal use of the natural gas grid and make a significant contribution to the energy transition. Before we can apply hydrogen as a fully viable alternative, we will accumulate experience and knowledge by means of projects.

Stad aan ’t Haringvliet

The residents of Stad aan ’t Haringvliet will possibly switch to hydrogen in 2025. To show how this works, we have temporarily converted an empty home of the Oost West Wonen housing association in Stad aan ’t Haringvliet into an ‘Inspirational Gas-Free City Home’. In the spring of 2022, we successfully heated this home for two months using green hydrogen. This also gave Stedin an opportunity to build on the knowledge and experience gained in its previous hydrogen conversion in Uithoorn.

Together with its partners, Stedin has made progress on its study of the potential for heating homes in Stad aan ’t Haringvliet using hydrogen. For example, frameworks for consumer protection have been formulated in consultation with the Netherlands Authority for Consumers & Markets. In addition, a safety guideline has been prepared in consultation with the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy. This will be supervised by the State Supervision of Mines.

Alliances and associations: The Green Village and HyDelta

Alliander, Enexis and Stedin are collaborating in the ‘Hydrogen Street’ project in The Green Village in Delft. We have laid a regular (natural) gas grid that carries 100% hydrogen. The aim here is to research how grid managers and market parties can cooperate in the operation and management of a hydrogen system. For instance, the H2@Home consortium supplied an occupied home with heating and tap water based fully on hydrogen in 2022. As grid managers, this enables us to gain knowledge and experience on how we can connect parties to a hydrogen grid and how we can safely and reliably manage a hydrogen grid.    

We are also involved with HyDelta, a national research programme aimed at the safe integration of hydrogen into the existing gas transmission and distribution infrastructure. The other participants are DNV, Gasunie, Kiwa, Hanzehogeschool, New Energy Coalition, Netbeheer Nederland, TKI Nieuw Gas and the Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO). We are currently conducting further broad research into issues such as system integration, digitalisation and social acceptance.

Mobility

The number of electric vehicles in the Netherlands grew by 34.8% in 2022, to 515,242 (2021: 39.7%). The Climate Agreement includes a commitment to install 1.7 million charging points in the Netherlands by 2030. The speed with which the transition to electric mobility is happening appears to be even faster than originally foreseen in the Climate Agreement. This illustrates the challenge that we face.

Connections for low-use charging infrastructure  

Connections for low-use charging infrastructure increased by 2,655 in 2022 (2021: 2,791). This marks the first time we have seen a flattening of this growth. The decline was partly due to the ending of the subsidy and tax allowances for buyers of electric cars and also the coronavirus pandemic. The total number of low-use connections laid in Stedin’s service area at year-end 2022 was 12,927, a 26% increase on 2021 (2021: 37%). We report on both the increase in the number of low-use connections and the total number of these connections laid because Stedin, as a grid manager, provides the infrastructure for connections. We do not have precise information on the number of charging points realised on a connection.

Increase in number of low-use connections for charging infrastructure (note: from 2019 incl. Zeeland).

Total number of low-use connections for charging infrastructure laid (note: from 2019 incl. Zeeland).

Determining the impact on our grids

To continue to facilitate the huge growth in the number of electric vehicles, we need to have insight into our customers’ needs (what do they need to charge, where and when) and social developments around sustainable mobility. We need to understand this to assess its future impact on the electricity grid and establish how much grid capacity and investment is needed. The five regions in the National Agenda on the Charging Infrastructure Network (NAL) are responsible for providing these forecasts to the grid managers. In addition, the municipalities are establishing an integrated vision with respect to charging infrastructure and updating the collective grid managers as to the future charging requirements (until the end of 2050). Based on this input, we prepare an integrated impact report for each NAL region. The first impact report was shared with the NAL regions at the beginning of 2022. There will be an annual update. Elaad - a cooperation between Dutch grid managers in the area of electric transport - provides the data on the basis of which we can formulate investment plans and put out tenders for the works together with the municipalities and provinces.

Collective grid connection for fast charging

A fast-charging infrastructure with national coverage is important to achieve certainty that charging will be available for electric drivers. Because of the high cost of a grid connection, fast-charge station operators (such as Fastned, Shell Recharge) generally opt for a connection in the medium voltage grid. This means that the operator has a limited time ahead, since the maximum capacity of the medium voltage grid rapidly becomes too limited and a heavier connection is then required. Rijkswaterstaat and the joint grid managers have started a pilot project with the aim to achieve a single collective grid connection with sufficient capacity. Fast-charge operators, and possibly also producers of green electricity, could be connected to this over a longer period, making them future-proof. 

Industry

The sustainability of industry was further improved in 2022, for instance through the electrification of heat production. The pace and scale of this are affected by high prices for gas. Some of our industrial customers were forced to cut back production as a result of the high gas prices. Some have also postponed their plans for electrification due to their reduced ability to invest. For the industrial customers that were able to maintain their investment potential due to long-term gas contracts, the high gas prices were an additional incentive to invest in electrification.

Due to the availability of technology such as e-boilers and electrolysis and the incentive from SDE++ subsidies, businesses are able to formulate and implement plans for electrification of their heating needs relatively quickly. In 2022, we thus saw the number of requests for connections at large industrial customers increases more rapidly than in previous years, for example at battery operators.

Rotterdam Port Industry Complex (HIC)

TenneT issued an advance warning of congestion at HIC at the end of 2022. Since we get our supply from TenneT’s high voltage grid, this was noticed by our customers. In most cases, this meant an indefinite delay for the connection of customers wishing to increase their current connection or new customers wishing to obtain a connection. We regret this, as besides efficiency and disconnection, electrification is now the only measure available to businesses to improve sustainability. At the same time, there was also a positive development, as sustainability plans that we expected in 2025 were brought forward. This situation therefore shows that sustainability at the HIC is really gaining momentum.

Cluster Energy Strategies

Stedin is engaged in an active dialogue on sustainability plans for heavy industry in the CES clusters of Rotterdam-Moerdijk and the Schelde-Delta region. The major impact of making these parties sustainable is felt by the national grid managers, especially when industrial customers electrify their processes in one go (TenneT) or switch to hydrogen (Gasunie). We also see that businesses are becoming more sustainable in phases. This may initially be facilitated by Stedin.

There is also a CES cluster for the industry located outside the other five CES clusters, which is referred to as the ‘decentralised industry’ cluster. Initial studies and estimates show that electrification towards 2050 could lead to a significant additional demand for capacity spread across Stedin’s service area. The analysis also shows where the most growth in capacity demand is expected and at which stations they may lead to bottlenecks. We are actively approaching the regional heavy industrial gas users in these areas and asking them about their sustainability plans. This proactive approach has led to an active dialogue between Stedin, its customers, public authorities and our fellow grid managers with the aim to make plans for readily understandable and feasible.

Data (Safe House)

In order to extend our horizon and to look (and act) beyond individual customer requests on the basis of evidence, Stedin closely collaborates with partners, including in the area of data. In 2022, Stedin was partly responsible for enabling the Energy Mix Study. In this study, based on data supplied by the industry, for the first time we looked at cost-effective transition pathways in the Port of Rotterdam. This information helps us to further refine our scenarios and make the dialogue with the industry more concrete.

In 2022, we also worked hard on the realisation of the Data Safe House, a platform where the industry and grid managers can exchange data on future energy use in a secure and confidential environment. The platform went live in the third quarter with an initial data exchange. Next year, the focus will be on increasing the number of participants, improving data quality and the central government putting in place a supporting policy framework. This method of data exchange is our most important tool for matching the supply of and demand for infrastructure as best as possible, both today and in the future. The more businesses participate, the more complete the picture will be. We therefore urge businesses to participate.